11-21-2023, 04:43 AM
It will be a brand new world for , Andy Reid and the on Thursday night, as star tight end will against the with a bone bruise.Kelce hasn't mi sed a game for injury since his 2013 rookie year and has mi sed just three games overall since: one each in 2017 and 2020 for rest purposes and one in 2021 for COVID-19. Since 2018, when Mahomes took over as Kansas City's full-time quarterback, Kelce has played nearly 200 offensive snaps more than any other skill-position player in the .Still, there's a decent sample size (683 offensive snaps to be exact) that includes Mahomes but not Kelce -- the situation the Chiefs face against the Lions to open the 2023 campaign. And we can draw some conclusions from those 683 plays.Before we get there, though, it's important to know that this is a ma sive lo s. Kelce is as important to his offense Matthew Boyd Jersey as any non-quarterback in the league. He's Mahomes' top target, matchup nightmare, red-zone stud, safety valve and go-to guy on extended plays ... all rolled into one. He's explosive before and after the catch, he's reliable, and he and Mahomes have a connection that numbers can't explain. But numbers can explain this: Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes since 2018With Travis KelceWithout Travis KelceYards per play6.75Yards per attempt8.27.1Yards per completion12.410.6Expected points added per play0.170.06Here are three ways the Chiefs' attack could look different without Kelce. All of the notes below are since 2018 unle s Mikie Mahtook Jersey otherwise noted. KC RB #10 Att170Yds830TD5FL2 The first big change might not be a wholly unexpected one. While his blocking skills have improved, Kelce is a future Hall of Famer for his receiving exploits. Over the past five years, the Chiefs have run the ball more than 58% of the time when Kelce isn't on the field with Mahomes compared to under 35% of the time when he is. Some of this is common sense -- the Chiefs lean more run-heavy when their best pa s-catcher needs a breather -- and some of it is situational. In the 2021 contest Kelce mi sed for COVID-19, the Chiefs ran 35 times and pa sed only 30, but they were also ahead almost the entire game, a 36-10 win over the .What's more interesting is the pre-snap changes. The Chiefs have had multiple backs on the field for under 5% of Mahomes' snaps with Kelce since 2018. That number skyrockets to more than 24% when Kelce hasn't been on the field with Mahomes. When Kelce has been on the field with Mahomes, the Chiefs line up in the shotgun over 82% of the time (64% when Kelce isn't in). Furthermore, the Chiefs run pre-snap motion 57% of the time with Mahomes and Kelce in (up to 64% when Kelce isn't in). Again, this makes sense: Kelce is a superior talent who wins one-on-one matchups with a defender without the Chiefs needing any pre-snap clues. But when he's not on the field, the Chiefs like to open things up for other targets. Here's a play where -- who -- clears things out for for an easy release and a first down. Pick Six Newsletter Crafted By The Best NFL Experts Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree to receive the "Pick Six Newsletter" and marketing communications, Al Kaline Jersey updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. KC WR #24 TAR33REC22REC YDs250REC TD0FL3 Kelce has garnered more targets than anyone not named and since 2018, so the targets swing ma sively when he's out.Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes since 2018With Travis KelceWithout Travis KelceRB target pct17.1%20.7%TE target pct30.4%14.2%WR target pct49.6%59.6%As tight end targets naturally plummet, the wide receivers see the major boost. Without Kelce, Mahomes in particular favors his teammates lined up wide (40% target share compared to 36% when Kelce is on the field). The slot target share dips (34% to 28%) as a result. Mahomes also gets the ball out faster and shorter without his top tight end. With Kelce on the field, Jeimer Candelario Jersey Mahomes throws 43% of his pa ses in under 2.5 seconds. That figure jumps to 48% without Kelce on the field. Likewise, Mahomes' air yards per attempt drop precipitously from 8.3 with Kelce to 6.2 without Kelce. That has meant fewer explosive plays, but it's also meant fewer sacks and fewer big negative plays. It's a compromise the Chiefs wouldn't like to make -- part of what makes Mahomes great is his willingne s to take risks both when trying to avoid pre sure and after letting the ball go -- but it shows the bad plays might not be quite so bad. KC QB #15 CMP%67. Alex Wilson Jersey 1YDs5250TD41INT12YD/Att8.1 When Mahomes and Kelce are both on the field, the Chiefs have faced a blitz on 18.7% of their plays. That drops to 15.1% when Kelce hasn't been on the field. The thinking seems to be that if you give Mahomes clean pockets, he and Kelce will pick you apart. Then again, they pick you apart even when Mahomes is pre sured, but that's a different discu sion. Overall, making things even somewhat off-rhythm for him can help the defense.Since 2018, opponents have played pre s coverage against the Chiefs on 64% of pa sing when both Mahomes and Kelce have been on the field. That number drops to 53% when Kelce hasn't been on the field. So while Mahomes' receiving options may get more free releases, they'll have to prove they can actually win downfield or against individual matchup, something Kelce does as well as any tight end, ever. Mahomes and Reid will certainly adjust to Kelce's availability (or lack there of). Those adjustments could be big ones, though, and it will pose a big challenge -- with not much time to solve it -- for one of the very best quarterback-coach duos in history
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