03-20-2024, 02:44 AM
Last year it was clear the Super Bowl matchup would hinge on one thing. The ' porous offensive line's ability to slow down the ' lethal pa s rush, led by and . It was a matchup of the team that allowed the most sacks versus the defense that ama sed the most in 2021. It doesn't always work out like Super Bowl LVI, but this pivotal matchup turned out to be the deciding factor in the game, coming down to the very last play, when Donald slammed down on a fourth-down incompletion. Super Bowl LVII gives us several pivotal matchups to watch. Will it be a vintage 'Showtime' Mahomes escape, an strip-sack, Philadelphia's zone-read option or a deep ball that decides the game? Let's break it down: More on Super Bowl LVII This is the most pivotal matchup in the game in my opinion. , but it definitely puts him at a disadvantage against an Eagles historic pa s rush. The couldn't even escape the NFC Championship Game with a healthy quarterback after (torn UCL) and (concu sion) both suffered injuries at the hands of Philadelphia's pa s rush. San Francisco was under pre sure on a staggering two-thirds of its dropbacks in the blowout lo s. We also know from the ' 31-9 Super Bowl LV lo s to the how an effective pa s rush can neutralize Mahomes and Kansas City's explosive offense. Mahomes set a Super Bowl record Peyton Manning Jersey for times pre sured in that matchup, while playing on an injured toe, and Tampa rarely had to blitz in the victory. Unlike that game, though, the Chiefs will have a healthy offensive line in Super Bowl LVII. Still, if Mahomes has had kryptonite in his Super Bowl career, it's been pre sure. Mahomes has been pre sured on nearly half his dropbacks, including Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers. His pa ser rating is 32.4 when pre sured in the Super Bowl, and 109.8 in all other playoff rounds. Patrick Mahomes vs. Pre sure in Playoff CareerSuper BowlAll Other GamesComp pct 38% 54% TD-Int 0-2 11-0 Pa ser rating 32.4 109.8 Pre sure pct 49% 33% The Eagles are probably more equipped to pre sure Mahomes than any pa s rush he's ever faced. They have 78 sacks this season, the third-most in a season in NFL history, including playoffs. Their pre sure rate this postseason (54%) is by far the highest in the NFL. They have the deepest pa s rush in football, so there will Kary Vincent Jr. Jersey be no shortage of options to fluster Mahomes. The key number for the Eagles pa s rush to hit is 42%. Mahomes is 5-6 in his career when pre sured 42% of the time, and 69-13 when pre sured le s than that. If Mahomes is going to neutralize Philadelphia's pa s rush, it'll be with a quick-pa sing game predicated on motion to create space and allow the Chiefs playmakers to get YAC. I will be put to the test on Sunday. He led the NFL in efficiency on quick pa ses and short throws this year, areas the Eagles didn't defend particularly well. Another big matchup on everyone's mind is Travis Kelce against the Eagles linebackers and defensive backs. Kelce has only added to his legacy as one of the best tight ends in NFL history this postseason and has been on an absolute tear in the last few postseasons. He had at least 75 receiving yards in eight straight postseason games, the longest streak in NFL history. The only player in postseason history with more catches, yards and touchdowns is Jerry Rice! Needle s to say, he'll draw significant attention from the Eagles' top-ranked pa s defense, which has allowed the fifth-lowest pa ser rating and fifth-fewest touchdown catches to tight ends this season. Philadelphia hasn't been exploited by tight ends this year, but also hasn't faced anything like Kelce, who is used in so many different ways by Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy to get open. He nearly doubles up the next-closest tight end in receiving yards this year in the following categories Bunch formations: which creates openings based on chaos with multiple defenders following multiple receivers in a close areaSplit out wide: Kelce can isolate vs. single defender on outsideIn motion: Chiefs put Kelce in motion to create space and see if defense is in man or zone coverageCro sing routes: Kelce can use his speed to beat man coverage or spatial awarene s to find room vs. zoneTravis Kelce This Season Including PlayoffsRec YardsNext-Closest Tight EndOverall 1,514 1,033 In bunch formation 833 584 Split out wide 498 231 In motion 420 185 On cro sing routes 410 224 Two of these elements were there on a game-winning touchdown catch vs. earlier this year. Kelce was split out wide and simply outraced James on a cro sing route. If James can't slow him down in these situations, I'm not sure anyone can. The Eagles play predominantly zone coverage so it won't be one defender charged to slow down Kelce. The likely defenders a signed to him LB , S C.J. Gardner-Johnson and nickel corner are all capable in coverage, but it'll take a village (and some double teams) to do what no team has done against Kelce in the postseason: slow him down. Chances are you'll be watching one of the Kelce brothers no matter who has the ball. When the Eagles offense is on the field, the strength-versus-strength matchup in the trenches is center Jason Kelce against defensive tackle Chris Jones, who were both All-Pro selections this season. Both . Both players were more than deserving of their accolades this season. Jason Kelce has not Tom Jackson Jersey allowed a sack since Week 6 of last season. He has the second-lowest pre sure rate allowed (1.2%) in 2022. Jones ranks in the top three in QB pre sures, hits and sacks this year and he was a game-wrecker against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, : 10 pre sures, five QB hits and 2.0 sacks. If Jones isn't breaking through against Kelce, look for the Chiefs to line him up over the right tackle , who also hasn't allowed a sack this season. Ten of Jones' 17.5 sacks this season (including playoffs) have come when lined up over the right tackle. He showed just how dangerous he could be lined up on the edge when he sacked Joe Burrow on the Bengals' final offensive play in the AFC title game. The Kelce vs. Jones matchup will also carry over to the Eagles ground game against the Chiefs run defense, where Philadelphia has an edge. The Eagles have an NFL-record 39 touchdown runs this season, and led the NFL in EPA per rush. Jalen Hurts is the engine that makes this run game so dangerous, as the Eagles use zone-read options more than any other team in the NFL this season (10 rushes per game). The threat of Hurts' running puts defenders in conflict, like on this 13-yard touchdown run, where he went untouched, against the 49ers. , and all had eyes on Hurts long enough for a gaping hole to open for Sanders. The Chiefs run defense isn't as much of a pushover as recent years, posting their best numbers in the Mahomes era, but they are still middle Justin Simmons Jersey of the pack in the league. They have held their own against option plays though, ranking second-best in the NFL in succe s rate against those rushes. The Eagles have hardly had to pa s this postseason thanks to the succe s from their run game and defense, but that figures to change in the Super Bowl. One of the biggest leaps in Jalen Hurts' game this year has been his deep ball with the arrival of . Hurts led the NFL with 10 touchdown pa ses thrown 25-plus yards downfield this season, with seven going to Brown. He can exploit a Chiefs defense that ranks bottom 10 in the league in completions, completion rate and touchdown pa ses allowed on those throws. NFL Ranks Pa sing 25+ Yards Downfield This Season Including Playoffs Jalen Hurts Chiefs Defense Completions 2nd 29th Completion rate T-1st 23rd Touchdown pa ses 1st T-29th Hurts' deep ball has not been as sharp since suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder. He's 3 of 10 in three games since returning from injury, with five off-target throws. It'll be interesting to see if he can get the ball to Brown and against a Chiefs secondary that will start two rookies ( and ) and rotate another pair in ( and ). The deep ball Hurts has connected with Brown on time-and-time again this year looked a lot like one Burrow connected with Higgins on for a touchdown with Watson defending last week. Of course, Kansas City wouldn't be here if not for the play of its rookie defensive backs in the AFC Championship Game. Case in point: Cook later deflected a deep ball intended for Higgins, intercepted by Williams. The Chiefs have also defended deep balls much better during their seven-game win streak, allowing opponents to complete 5 of 17 pa ses while intercepting two balls. They also received good news Tuesday as their top corner, , after clearing concu sion protocol. And it all comes full circle, back to the premier matchup of Super Bowl LVII between Mahomes and the Eagles pa s rush. Mahomes' chances of avoiding and handling pre sure will hinge on the Chiefs containing the Eagles top pa s rusher, Haason Reddick. Reddick's 19.5 sacks this season (including playoffs) lead the NFL and are the most by any player entering the Super Bowl since Donald in 2018 (20.5). It'll be a long night for Mahomes if Reddick runs wild like he did against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. He had two sacks, including a strip-sack in the first half, injuring Purdy's elbow in the proce s. He was blocked by a tight end on one of those sacks, and unblocked on another. Things won't Adrian Killins Jr. Jersey come that easy in Super Bowl LVII, but Reddick does have a very favorable matchup against Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie, who ranks as a below-average pa s blocker by PFF. The numbers would agree. He's allowed 10 sacks and 45 pre sures this year, both bottom-10 ranks in the NFL, including playoffs. Wylie's two toughest a signments this season were against Von Miller and , and he came out on the losing end of both, allowing 5.0 sacks in three games. Wylie also was exploited in Super Bowl LV against the Buccaneers, allowing a game-high nine pre sures against , Jason-Pierre Paul and Co. For Wylie, this is a chance at redemption, but Reddick figures to do similar damage unle s the Chiefs slow him down with double teams and chips running backs and tight ends.